Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction: Shaky starters means more runs Tuesday night

We have a Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction for Game 1 of this two-game, interleague set.

Toronto swept the Pirates in Pittsburgh over the weekend, while the Phillies dropped a home series to the Red Sox.

We’re unsure which team will win the game, but we’re projecting a high-scoring matchup.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

The starting pitchers should define this game.

I’m low on Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola, who has seen a drastic dip in velocity across his arsenal. His strikeout rate is down 10% from last season, while his walk rate has nearly doubled, and he’s forcing fewer ground balls than ever (36.4%). His stuff just isn’t there, and his 4.64 ERA shows it.

Nola is due for positive regression given his 3.69 expected ERA, but I’m still not eager to back him.

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That’s because I’m even lower on Toronto starting pitcher Alek Manoah. He was a clear regression candidate following a third-place Cy Young finish in 2022 (16-7, 2.24 ERA, 196 ⅔ innings), but he’s over-regressed.

Manoah is experiencing similar velocity drops to Nola also coupled with location struggles. Manoah’s strikeout rate is down about 4% year over year, but his walk rate has surged to over 12%.

Additionally, Manoah is on pace to post the worst batted-ball profile of his young career. His barrel rate allowed is up 4%, while his hard-hit rate allowed is up 10%.

As a result, Manoah has pitched to a 4.71 ERA and a whopping 6.72 expected ERA. Unfortunately, he’s been bad, and things might get worse.

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Meanwhile, neither lineup will do the opposing pitcher a favor.

The Blue Jays are generally one of the hardest-hitting teams in baseball, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman and George Springer headlining a murderous heart of the lineup. While the Jays’ exit velocities are slightly down, they’re still top-three in barrel rate (11%) and top-10 in wRC+ (111) behind good plate discipline.

The Phillies’ lineup has struggled to start the season, but I expect their numbers to rise steadily with Bryce Harper back in the fold. Harper’s plate discipline and batted-ball profile are what the Phillies have been missing.

So, both starters are in for a long day on the mound.

The Action Network PRO model projects this total at 9.16, giving us a slight edge on the over 8.5 (-120) available at FanDuel.

There’s firepower in both lineups and two shaky arms on the mound, so let’s hope for fireworks in Philly on Tuesday night.

Moneyline: Blue Jays (+118) vs. Phillies (-138)

Spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-172) vs. Phillies -1.5 (+142)

Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (-102)

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