Penguins vs Maple Leafs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Pens Still Flightless

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Fresh off snapping a seven-game losing skid, the Pittsburgh Penguins roll into Toronto Friday night to take on the Maple Leafs, as both clubs will be playing the first game of a back-to-back.

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The Leafs are dealing with issues in net, while the Penguins have some serious injury concerns on the blue line — but that doesn’t mean we’re going to see a high-scoring affair Friday night.

Find out why in my free NHL picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs best odds

Penguins vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

The Penguins might be down two starting defensemen tonight, as Jan Rutta and Pierre-Olivier Joseph exited their last game vs. Washington. They are very questionable for tonight, making an already weak blue line weaker. The Leafs should be able to take advantage of this with their speed and the benefit of the last change. The Pens come into this game in awful form, as well.

Pittsburgh snapped its seven-game losing streak this week vs. the Capitals, but Washington has been decimated by injuries and I’m not taking much away from the win. On the road this season, the Pens are 2-5-1, scoring just 2.61 goals per game, and have the fifth-worst power play. Now they face an opponent that has allowed just 97 shots over its last four games and is minimizing scoring chances outside of poor giveaways from a young defense.

Toronto has had issues building on early leads so far this season but has also had no problems playing from behind, as five of its seven wins have come when trailing first. The offense has scored more than three goals just two times this year, but its recent form, coupled with the Pens’ tough road splits and their losing ways has me stronger on the Toronto moneyline than I’ve been all season.

Dropping from -185 to -155 is the trigger point for me and if Erik Kallgren can play as expected, this is a game the Leafs should win 65% to 70% of the time.

If Pittsburgh scores first, there might be some value on a live Toronto moneyline bet as projected Pittsburgh goalie Tristan Jarry has allowed three or more goals in five straight starts and has a .874 save percentage over that stretch with 22 goals against.

Toronto was a -120 favorite vs Vegas this week and there is more than a 30-point difference between the Pens and Knights.

My best bet: Toronto moneyline (-155 at SIA)

Penguins vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis

The Leafs come into Friday’s meeting with the Pens having taken seven of a possible eight points, which include elite teams in Vegas, Carolina, and Boston. Following a disastrous road trip with losses in San Jose, Anaheim, and Los Angeles, the Leafs have pulled it together and a team defensive game is a big reason.

Justin Holl has found a great home with TJ Brodie, and the addition of Timothy Liljegren has balanced out all three pairings. The Leafs still make plenty of mistakes (second-most giveaways at 5-on-5), but they’re a Top-7 team in Corsi/Fenwick and sit seventh in expected goals against differential. Sheldon Keefe is getting the most out of this team that currently allows just 27.4 shots per game (third) and 2.71 goals against (seventh).

Toronto has found success in suffocating the opposition. Boston, Carolina, and Vegas averaged just 2.00 goals and 23.6 SOG over Toronto’s last three games. Just once over the Leafs’ last 10 games has its opponent has tallied more than 33 shots on goal. With no big-name presence between the pipes, the Leafs are committed to playing this slower-paced, low-shot-volume style of hockey, and Friday we should expect the same.

Pittsburgh comes in having snapped a seven-game losing streak by beating the injured Capitals 4-1 in DC on Wednesday. It hasn’t been a great start to the 2022-23 season for Pittsburgh, but things might be at their worst Friday night as the blue line suffered some major losses vs. Washington.

Pittsburgh was already lacking depth and talent on defense but Rutta and Joseph are questionable to suit up Friday — especially with a game in Montreal on Saturday. The duo was getting bottom-pairing minutes but plugging two holes is either going to make the Pens have to play their top-four a ton, or Pittsburgh will have to dilute its other pairings to accommodate the likely inexperience of call-ups.

This was already a Pittsburgh team that ranked in the Bottom 7 in shots allowed per game, goals against, and PK. With the last change, Keefe and the Leafs will be able to get great matchups and exploit the injuries to the Pittsburgh blue line.

Some books opened as short as -185 but the Leafs’ moneyline has moved to a more manageable -155. This offense hasn’t been strong enough to take on the puck line with three wins by multiple goals, but the win in regulation at +105 is also solid play considering the form and health of the Penguins.

I’m expecting another low-scoring game Friday night, even with the injuries to Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis

The Leafs are 4-9-1 O/U on the season and their last three Overs have all been with late third-period goals. Every Under is live with the Buds, and with the books still giving us great odds for the Under 6.5, I’m dipping into it again Friday night.

Many indicators are pointing bettors to the Over: injuries to the Pittsburgh defense and poor goaltending from the visitors, while the Leafs’ top two netminders are also on the shelf. But due to these compounding issues, teams are willing to protect their weaknesses and that means a more conservative style of hockey on both sides tonight.

Confirmed goalie Kallgren has seen just 50 total shots over his last two starts, which were against two of the best teams in hockey in the Golden Knights and Hurricanes. He did let in four of 20 vs. Vegas on Tuesday, but if Toronto keeps suppressing shots and the defense doesn’t gift-wrap the Pens some goals, it could be another low-volume night for the Toronto goalie.

The Pens will also be looking to ride the momentum from Wednesday’s win into Scotiabank Arena. Pittsburgh won by playing a tight game and allowing just 25 shots, and that included heavy minutes without two of their defenders. Pittsburgh can certainly keep this 5-on-5 Toronto offense in check, as scoring at even strength has been an issue all season for the Buds. Auston Matthews has just four 5-on-5 points through 14 games.

Jarry could get the start for the Pens and his numbers have been awful to start the year: 3.38 GAA and a .902 SV%. But like with Casey DeSmith on Wednesday, this Pittsburgh team is going to protect its own end first and create offense off of that.

For a Leafs’ team that sits 22nd in goals per game (Pittsburgh is 22nd on the road) and has scored four or more goals just twice in 14 games this year, it’s another Under for me.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs are 21-5 SU in their last 26 vs. the Metropolitan division. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs Maple Leafs.

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