Is Ukraine getting extra fighter planes from Poland?
Ukraine’s embattled armed forces desperately need combat aircraft to help the country fight off the Russian invasion. Its air force, though still flying, remains outnumbered by its opponent.
However, any new planes need to be ones that Ukraine’s pilots are trained to use. That means they need to be Russian-made planes, principally the MiG-29 fighter. Some eastern European countries still have MiGs in their fleets, which a week ago the EU said it hoped could be given to Ukraine.
Poland said on Tuesday evening that it was willing to hand over its fleet of 28 MiG 29s to the US – which was in turn expected to pass them on to the Ukrainian air force. The Pentagon has said the deal is “not tenable”, though one senior state department official said they would see how to respond to the proposal. Poland had been expecting the US to supply it with more advanced F-16s to fill the gap.
Is Poland at risk from Russian retaliation?
Western countries have been supplying increasingly sophisticated arms to Ukraine so it can fight off the Russian advance. So far the anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles that have been supplied have irritated Russia, but not led to any direct retaliation against any country involved.
Giving Ukraine fast jets is clearly a step up, and Poland is sufficiently nervous about the Kremlin reaction that it is using the US as an intermediary to help get the combat aircraft to Kyiv, although the manoeuvre is hardly subtle.
The Russian Ministry of Defence has warned that if warplanes based in another country were to attack Russian targets, then it “could be considered as those countries’ engagement in the military conflict”. But if the US is transferring the fighters to Ukraine, Russia may not want to engage the Americans directly.
It is still thought unlikely that Russia would want to retaliate against Poland militarily, on the grounds that it is a member of Nato. But Russia may consider other actions against Warsaw, perhaps special economic sanctions.
Will the extra jets make a significant difference to the war?
Despite a spirited defence by Ukraine of its territory and the anti-tank and anti-air weapons already supplied by the west, Russia’s advance has ground on, although with heavier than expected losses of troops and material.
If what is left of Ukraine’s air force were to sustain further losses it would soon reach the point where it is unable to defend itself from attack in the skies. A new fleet of aircraft would ensure the airspace above Ukraine remains contested at least for a time, and would make Russia think twice about airstrikes on Kyiv.
But the main problem faced by Ukraine’s armed forces at present is Russia’s preponderance in artillery. Russia has been shelling cities such as Kharkiv and Mariupol for several days in an attempt to force their surrender.
Ukraine could try to use its planes to strike enemy convoys from the air, but that would be fraught with risk as Russia is thought to have brought air defence systems closer to the frontline in the past few days.
