Tua Tagovailoa's play during Dolphins' winning streak has been misleading, plus other best bets for Monday

Tua has thrown eight interceptions in nine games as a starter and his interception rate of 2.6% ranks 23rd among 32 qualified QBs

By Tom Fornelli

Dec 27, 2021 at 3:58 pm ET • 5 min read

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Welcome back from your holiday weekend. If you're like me, you're exhausted. I'm not tired because of the holidays. I'm tired because car alarm manufacturers are sadists and should be imprisoned.

There was a car alarm going off outside my bedroom window all night. Now, when you live in a city, you do so with the understanding that it's not as quiet as life in the country, and you'll have to deal with stuff like this. But why do car alarms have to go on forever? Seriously, the alarm started going off around 11 p.m. and was going intermittently throughout the night. It would go off for five minutes, stop for a while, and start again.

Why!? Why would you design a car alarm never to turn off? If somebody is trying to steal a car, the alarm either scares them off or doesn't. If it doesn't, they'll steal the car and shut the alarm off themselves. If it does scare them off, they're gone! The alarm doesn't need to go for another eight hours!

Anyway, if I see the car parked out on the street again tonight -- it left this afternoon -- I'm going to steal it myself and drive it into Lake Michigan. But keep that between us, OK?

I can't find odds on whether or not the car will be back tonight, but I did find some on tonight's games.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏈Dolphins at Saints, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Saints 1st Quarter +0.5 (-150): Remember when gambling was easy? OK, so it was never easy, but it was a lot simpler than it is now when every team in the world is missing players due to injuries or COVID protocols. Tonight's NFL game isn't any different, as we're all blessed to see the Saints turn the offense over to rookie Ian Book at QB. It's Book's first career start, and he'll be roughly the 15th different QB the Saints have been forced to use this season. The announcement of Book starting the game swung this line big time, as the Saints went 3-point favorites to 3.5-point underdogs in a flash.

I suspect that's too large a swing, but I'm not excited to back the Saints for a full game, so I'm taking a different approach.

Sean Payton is a good coach. He's had successful offenses with many different quarterbacks, and I expect the Saints will have an excellent game script to start the game at home tonight. And that's why I want the Saints in the first quarter. New Orleans has one of the best defenses in the league and should provide problems for a "hot" Miami offense. If the defense can do its job, and the Saints put together just one scripted drive to get a field goal or even a touchdown, we cruise to an easy win here.

Plus, if we lose, at least it's over quickly, and we can all move on with our lives.

Key Trend: I don't have any first quarter trends, so let's just pretend the Saints are 1,000,000-0 ATS in the first quarter.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's Larry Hartstein is 39-24 ATS in his last 63 picks involving New Orleans and he has a spread play available for tonight's game.

💰 The Picks

🏈 One more MNF bet

The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110) -- There's been plenty of talk about Tua Tagovailoa "turning the corner" during this Dolphins win streak, as they've won five straight, including his four starts. It's misleading. First of all, Tua's last four wins as a starter have come over the Jets (twice), Panthers and Giants. Those teams are a combined 13-32 this season. That said, Tua has played well, but Miami doesn't ask much of him.

Tua has completed 75.8% of his passes in those games, but he's averaging only 7.14 yards per attempt and 6.24 air yards per attempt. He's throwing a lot of short passes off RPO's because that's what he excels at and because he plays behind a bad offensive line that can't protect him for long. Tonight the Dolphins face a defense with a strong pass rush and a secondary that can cover. Plus, even while Tua has played well in the last four games, he's thrown three interceptions.

Key Trend: Tua has thrown eight interceptions in nine games as a starter and his interception rate of 2.6% ranks 23rd among 32 qualified QBs.

🏈 College Football

Air Force vs. Louisville, Tuesday, 3:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Air Force +1.5 (-110) -- I have long been a champion of Service Academy Unders when the service academies play during the regular season, but there's another trend involving the academies I haven't mentioned much. They crush it in bowl games. Since 2005, service academies have gone 20-9 ATS in bowl games. Now, they're 0-1 this season, but while Army didn't cover against Missouri, it did win the game. Much like that game, this is a matchup I think Air Force can exploit.

Air Force ranks seventh in the nation in offensive success rate and 21st in points per possession. The Falcons offense will be up against a Louisville defense that ranks 87th in defensive rush EPA and 105th in success rate against the run. The Cardinals will have success on offense against this Air Force defense, but I don't trust them to get as many stops as they're going to need to win. Take the points, but don't be surprised if Air Force wins outright.

Key Trend: Service Academies are 20-9 ATS in bowl games since 2005.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model has shared all its favorite prop plays for tonight's Monday Night Football game.

🏀 Tonight's Parlay

Listen, betting the NBA right now is just a random number generator, so if we're going to do it, it might as well be a parlay. This one pays +160.