The Toronto Blue Jays (11-12) begin a three-game weekend series at their 2021 home of TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Fla., against the Atlanta Braves (12-13) Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Braves LHP Drew Smyly (0-1, 7.20 ERA) is striking out 9.0 batters per nine innings against just 1.8 walks per nine with a 1.20 WHIP through 3 starts.
- Giving up career-high 40.0% fly-ball and 57.8% hard-hit rates.
- Roughed up for 5 earned runs (6 total) on 6 hits, 2 walks and 3 home runs in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks last time out (Sunday).
Blue Jays LHP Robbie Ray (0-1, 2.81 ERA) makes his fourth start for the Jays. He has a 1.38 WHIP with 5.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 16 innings.
- Opponent OPS of .719 is well below his career average, but he’s benefiting from a .238 BABIP (.316 career average).
- Pitched a season-high 6 innings on 94 pitches Saturday with 9 K and no walks, but gave up 3 earned runs and 2 homers in a no-decision against the Tampa Bay Rays .
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Braves at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Blue Jays -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-175) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Blue Jays 7, Braves 4
Money line (ML)
The BLUE JAYS (-125) have been kept afloat by 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., thus far but will field their closest thing to a healthy lineup yet this season Friday.
OF George Springer debuted with a 0-for-4 outing against the Washington Nationals Wednesday, but he’s a career .274/.387/.511 hitter against LHP and should provide a boost Friday. OF Teoscar Hernandez is also a candidate to return for his first game since April 8. He posted a .935 OPS with 5 homers against lefties in his breakout 2020 campaign.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Toronto offense will break out against Smyly and the Braves and the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+145) will win handily in their temporary home.
We’re giving the pitching edge to Ray, as he should be able to contain a Braves lineup striking out in 31.6% of plate appearances against lefties. Atlanta is also 29th in baseball with a .491 team OPS in the split to make Toronto’s .660 team figure against lefties look good.
Over/Under (O/U)
Bet the OVER 10 (-115).
The Blue Jays should provide the bulk of the offense, but Ray is also having some home run issues with 3 allowed through 3 starts.
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