Screen Shots: Wild-Card Race, Patrick Kane and New York Islanders
Adam Proteau analyzes the NHL's race for the playoffs, Patrick Kane's comments on the Tarasenko trade and if the New York Islanders can sneak into Round 1.
Happy belated Valentine’s Day to you. This is Screen Shots, an ongoing THN.com feature in which we examine a few different hockey topics, and write on them in a shorter file. This edition goes over the teams in the hunt for an NHL playoff spot, Patrick Kane and the New York Islanders. As always, we get right to it.
We’re starting to see some real separation in the NHL standings in the Eastern and Western Conferences. In two of the four divisions – the Metropolitan and Atlantic – the third-place team is at least seven standings points ahead of the fourth-place team.
In the Central, the fifth-place Nashville Predators are five points out of eighth place in the West, and in the Pacific, only five teams are in the hunt for a playoff berth.
So, we now have a good idea of which teams will be fighting for a post-season spot – probably not a top-three spot in their respective divisions, but for the two wild-card slots in each conference.
To be specific, the 14 teams legitimately in the mix for those four playoff spots (and, in the Pacific, one of the top three positions) are: the Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers, Seattle Kraken and Los Angeles Kings in the Pacific, the Predators (barely), the Colorado Avalanche in the Central, the Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators (barely) in the Atlantic, and the New York Islanders, Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins in the Metro.
That’s some incredible competition. That’s a situation that is going to end in bitter disappointment for 10 of those teams.
We’ve said recently we have a hunch the the Sabres will finally develop into a playoff team in one of the wild-card positions. After that, the pesky Penguins, Flames and Avalanche feel like good picks to outlast the other playoff contenders, and lock up either a wild-card berth or a higher spot in their division. But the race is so tight, in both conferences, it really is anybody’s game.
Well, almost anybody.
We now have clear space in the lower parts of the standings. Barring any on-ice miracles, the Montreal Canadiens, Philadelphia Flyers, Columbus Blue Jackets, St. Louis Blues, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, Vancouver Canucks, San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks all are playing with next season in mind. That’s nearly one-third of the league’s franchises, and we’ve still got approximately one-third of the season left to play.
The separation in the standings should clarify which teams are/should be sellers at the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline. All of the aforementioned non-playoff teams all have assets the “buyer” teams have interest in, but it’s now on the GMs of the “seller” teams to gage the marketplace and make deals either now (as a couple of teams have done) or wait until the deadline arrives to maximize the value of those tradable assets.
Speaking of recent trades, the Blues’ dealing of star winger Vladimir Tarasenko has left Blackhawks star winger Patrick Kane with one fewer place he’d have comfort being traded to.
After the Tarasenko trade was finalized, Kane told media he wasn't pleased to see what potentially could’ve been his spot on the Blueshirts filled by Tarasenko.
“It’s not the happiest I’ve been to hear about a trade,” Kane said. “If things are going to happen, (the Rangers) was team I was definitely looking at…It seems like they kind of filled their void and went ahead and made a deal. So it is what it is.”
With rumors swirling that Kane's only other destination choice in a trade is Toronto, the pressure now turns to Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson to make a deal with the Maple Leafs that is the best he can make in a sticky situation.
In many ways, Kane’s current situation is similar to the Martin St-Louis era ended in Tampa Bay. St-Louis only wanted to be traded to the Rangers, and then-Lightning-GM Steve Yzerman had the task of making the best deal he could with the Blueshirts.
As it happened, Yzerman actually did very well, landing forward Ryan Callahan, a 2014 conditional first or second-round pick, a 2015 first-rounder and a 2015 conditional seventh-rounder. Callahan was part of a Bolts team that made it to the Stanley Cup final in 2015, but the draft picks were the real asset Yzerman was able to extract from the Rangers.
This is because a series of subsequent trades of those picks eventually got them current key component Anthony Cirelli in the third round. Cirelli wasn’t directly traded by the Rangers, but Tampa Bay wound up adding a notable piece for their future by being savvy on the draft and development front.
This is what the rebuilding Blackhawks should be aiming for from Toronto. The Leafs might be willing to part with a youngster like forward Nick Robertson and a second or third-rounder for Kane – a young asset, and a draft pick the Hawks’ draft and development group could focus on this summer.
Kane has earned the right to call his spot on the trade front, and holding onto him the rest of the year feels like it would be almost out of spite for the Hawks. Working out a deal with the Leafs may be delicate and complex, but the alternative – leaving Kane in Chicago the reason of the season – makes less sense for the team or the player.
The New York Islanders lost their third consecutive game Tuesday night, dropping a 3-2 overtime game to the visiting Senators. The Isles have a 4-4-2 record in their past 10 games, and since Jan. 14, they’ve only won four games (4-5-4) – a four-game win streak, and that’s it.
The Islanders’ struggles have some fans calling for coach Lane Lambert to be fired, but a coaching move is not what this franchise needs. As constructed, and even with the addition of star center Bo Horvat, the Isles are a flawed group that doesn't have the NHL-caliber depth teams need to make the playoffs.
As we noted in the first section of this file, the Islanders are going to be battling a slew of teams to lock up a wild-card position, and it’s entirely possible they're going to miss the playoffs.
If they’re still sagging by the trade deadline, it will be fascinating to see what the Islanders do to their lineup. As per CapFriendly, Isles GM Lou Lamoriello will have approximately $8.6 million in salary cap space to use at the deadline. He has the option of adding win-now parts in a desperate attempt to earn a wild-card spot, being a third-party team that uses its cap space to help accommodate a trade between two other teams, or dealing away some veteran talent in a recognition that the Islanders are going to have a better chance to win next year once they make additional roster moves in the summer.
The addition of Horvat on Jan. 30 has not pushed the Islanders to great heights. They’re 2-1-2 since the Horvat trade, certainly not good enough to grind a way into one of the two wild-card spots. That may change, but at the moment, it clearly seems that the Islanders have more change ahead of them.